No game on the Ohio sports calendar draws more betting action than The Game. Ohio State vs Michigan isn't just a rivalry—it's a cultural event that generates millions in wagers from casual fans and sharps alike.
Here's what the data says about betting the biggest game of the year.
The Greatest Rivalry in Sports
120+ years of history • 15+ years of ATS data analyzed
Recent ATS History
Ohio State has won 10 of the last 15 meetings outright and covered 9 of those spreads. But here's the nuance: Michigan's recent surge (4-1 SU from 2021-2024) has shifted the betting landscape considerably.
Year-by-Year Breakdown
| Year | Location | Line | Result | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Columbus | OSU -20 | MICH 13-10 | MICH +20 ✓ |
| 2023 | Ann Arbor | MICH -3 | MICH 30-24 | MICH -3 ✓ |
| 2022 | Columbus | OSU -8 | MICH 45-23 | MICH +8 ✓ |
| 2021 | Ann Arbor | OSU -7.5 | MICH 42-27 | MICH +7.5 ✓ |
| 2019 | Ann Arbor | OSU -9 | OSU 56-27 | OSU -9 ✓ |
| 2018 | Columbus | OSU -14 | OSU 62-39 | OSU -14 ✓ |
The trend is clear: Michigan has covered 4 straight after years of Ohio State domination. The question is whether that trend continues or reverts.
Jim Harbaugh went 5-0 ATS in his final five games vs OSU. Post-Harbaugh Michigan faces new dynamics. Ryan Day's Buckeyes are 0-4 SU in his last four against Michigan despite often being favored.
Key Betting Factors
Home Field Matters Less
Unlike most rivalries, home field provides less edge in The Game. The losing team's crowd energy often matches the winner's desperation. ATS records are nearly identical home vs away over the past 15 years.
Line Movement Is Sharp
The Game attracts the sharpest money of any regular-season college football game. Lines move significantly from open to close. If you have a strong read, bet early. If you're following money, watch for late movement.
Weather Impacts Totals
Late November in the Midwest means cold, wind, and sometimes snow. Totals in The Game have gone under 53% of the time since 2010. When weather is a factor, that rate climbs to 65%.
Motivation Asymmetry
When one team has everything to play for (CFP spot, Big Ten title) and the other is playing spoiler, the spoiler often outperforms. Michigan's 2021 upset came when Ohio State was the heavy favorite with national title hopes.
Betting Angles for The Game
The Underdog Angle
Underdogs of 7+ points have covered 6 of the last 9 meetings. The emotional intensity of the rivalry tends to keep games closer than spreads suggest. If you see double-digit spreads, underdog value increases.
The First Half Lean
Ohio State has been a strong first-half cover team historically, often jumping to early leads before games tighten in the second half. Consider first-half spreads if you like OSU but worry about covering the full game.
The Under Trend
Defenses rise to the occasion in rivalries. The under has hit in 8 of the last 15 meetings. Unless both teams have elite offenses and suspect defenses, lean under—especially in bad weather.
Remember: Ohio law prohibits betting on individual college player performance. You cannot bet on passing yards, touchdowns, or other player props for The Game. Stick to spreads, totals, and moneylines.
Public vs Sharp Money
The Game is one of the most publicly bet games of the year. Ohio bettors overwhelmingly back the Buckeyes regardless of the line. This creates opportunities:
- When OSU is favored big: Public loads up on Ohio State; sharps often grab Michigan plus the points
- When lines are tight: Public still leans OSU; contrarian value exists on Michigan
- When Michigan is favored: Rare, but when it happens, OSU money floods in, potentially creating value on Michigan
Watch ticket percentages vs money percentages. If 70% of tickets are on OSU but only 50% of money, sharps are on Michigan.
Prop Bets Available
While player props are banned, you can still bet:
- First team to score
- Total points by quarter
- Margin of victory
- Will there be overtime?
- First scoring play type (TD, FG, safety)
- Highest scoring half
These team-based props offer ways to add action beyond the standard spread and total.
The Responsible Approach
The Game generates more emotional betting than any other Ohio sports event. This is exactly when the 1% rule matters most. Set your limit before kickoff and stick to it—don't let a bad beat lead to chasing losses during the second half.
Enjoy the rivalry. Place your bet. Watch the game. But remember: it's one game. The sun will rise Sunday morning regardless of the outcome or whether your bet hits.