🏆 Big Moments

Betting the First Four in Dayton: March Madness Local Angles

📅 December 2025 ⏱️ 7 min read 🏆 Big Moments

Every March, the NCAA Tournament begins in Ohio. Not in a big city with a pro team—in Dayton, population 137,000, where UD Arena has hosted the First Four since 2011. It's become one of college basketball's best betting environments.

For Ohio bettors, these games offer unique advantages. You can watch in person, gauge crowd energy, and exploit local knowledge that out-of-state bettors don't have.

2026 NCAA First Four

March 17-18, 2026
UD Arena • Dayton, Ohio

What Is the First Four?

The First Four features four play-in games before the main 64-team bracket begins. Two games pit the last four at-large teams against each other (#16 seed play-in), and two games feature the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers (#11 seed play-in typically).

These games matter because:

First Four ATS Trends

Since the First Four format began in 2011, here's what the data shows:

52%
Favorites ATS
48%
Underdogs ATS
54%
Unders Hit Rate

The numbers are close to a coin flip on sides, but unders have been profitable. These games tend to be tight, nervy affairs with teams adjusting to the tournament environment.

Betting Angles

🎯 The Auto-Qualifier Edge

Teams that won their conference tournament (auto-qualifiers) are riding momentum. Teams that backed into at-large bids often struggled late in their season. In #11 seed matchups, lean toward the conference tourney winner.

🎯 Travel Distance Matters

Ohio is a neutral site, but it's not equally neutral. Teams from the Midwest have shorter travel, more fans in attendance, and better familiarity with the arena. Track which team has the geographic advantage.

🎯 Second Game Energy

The First Four plays two games each night. The second game (typically 9 PM tip) often has higher energy—the crowd is warmed up, and TV ratings are higher. Teams that feed off energy tend to perform better late.

🎯 The "Snubbed" Narrative

Watch Selection Sunday carefully. Teams that feel they should've been higher seeds or automatic qualifiers that expected better placement sometimes play with a chip on their shoulder. Motivation matters in one-game scenarios.

Why Dayton?

You might wonder why the NCAA puts its opening games in a mid-sized Ohio city. A few reasons:

The result: First Four games have an intimate, intense atmosphere that bigger venues can't match.

📊 The Home Court That Isn't

When the Dayton Flyers make the tournament, they've historically played early-round games at UD Arena—a massive advantage. But the First Four is "neutral," meaning no team should have home court. Watch for teams with strong Ohio/Midwest alumni bases who might pack the arena anyway.

First Four to Final Four

Don't sleep on First Four winners in your bracket. Several have made deep runs:

Year Team Run
2011 VCU Final Four
2016 Syracuse Final Four
2022 Notre Dame Second Round
2023 Pittsburgh Second Round

The #11 seed play-in winners have the best shot at a run—they're battle-tested and facing a beatable #6 seed in Round 1.

Ohio Bettor Advantages

Being in Ohio during the First Four gives you edges:

1. In-Person Scouting

Attend Tuesday's games and bet Wednesday's games informed. Watch warmups, see which team looks focused, gauge crowd composition. That intel beats any box score.

2. Local Media Coverage

Dayton Daily News, Columbus Dispatch, and Cincinnati Enquirer all cover the First Four extensively. You'll see practice reports and local angles that national media ignores.

3. Live Betting Edge

If you're at UD Arena, you can feel momentum shifts before they show up on TV. That 30-second edge matters for live betting.

4. Weather/Travel Issues

March in Ohio can be unpredictable. Teams flying in from warm climates sometimes arrive late due to weather. Watch for travel disruptions—if a team's flight is delayed, their preparation suffers.

💡 The Play

Get tickets to Tuesday's games ($50-100 range). Use what you learn to inform Wednesday's bets. The ROI on game tickets is often the scouting advantage you gain.

Remember: It's Still Gambling

The First Four is fun, it's local, and it's a great way to start March Madness. But these are still single-elimination games between evenly matched teams. The variance is high.

Stick to the 1% rule. Don't blow your bankroll on four games just because they're in Dayton. Use the local angles as tiebreakers in your analysis, not as reasons to overbet.

The NCAA Tournament will still be here after the First Four. Pace yourself.

More Big Moments

Ohio hosts plenty of betting-worthy events beyond the First Four.

Read: Memorial Tournament Betting →