The NCAA Tournament is three weeks of controlled chaos. 68 teams, single elimination, and more upsets than any other sporting event. Here's how to approach betting March Madness as an Ohio bettor.
Round-by-Round Strategy
First Four (Dayton)
The First Four games in Dayton are often overlooked. Two are between 16-seeds fighting for the right to lose to a 1-seed. Two are play-in games between bubble teams—these are more interesting to bet. Limited public attention means slightly less efficient lines.
First Round (Round of 64)
The most bet day of the tournament. 12-seeds over 5-seeds hit at about 35% historically—the most reliable upset spot. 13-seeds over 4-seeds happen about 20% of the time. 14, 15, 16 seeds are lottery tickets.
Second Round (Round of 32)
Fatigue and travel start to matter. Teams playing their second game in three days may struggle. Look for matchup issues that weren't visible before the tournament started—you now have one data point.
Sweet 16 & Elite 8
Talent gap narrows. Remaining teams are either elite or hot. Games get tighter, unders become more valuable, and coaching matchups matter more. Single-digit spreads become the norm.
Final Four & Championship
The most efficiently priced games of the tournament. Two weeks of analysis, massive public interest, sharp money on both sides. Finding an edge here is extremely difficult. Treat these as entertainment bets.
Upset Patterns That Actually Work
| Matchup | Upset Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 12 over 5 | ~35% | Most reliable upset spot |
| 11 over 6 | ~37% | Often underseeded teams |
| 13 over 4 | ~20% | Happens once most years |
| 10 over 7 | ~40% | Barely an upset |
| 14 over 3 | ~15% | Lottery ticket |
| 15 over 2 | ~6% | About once every 2 years |
| 16 over 1 | ~1% | Once in history (UMBC) |
Not all 12-seeds are equal. Look for 12-seeds that are experienced, play slow, and defend well. Mid-major conference champions with senior guards are your best bet. Avoid 12-seeds that got there by winning a weak conference tournament.
Ohio Teams in March
Ohio State Buckeyes
When Ohio State makes the tournament, expect heavy Ohio money on them. This can inflate lines, creating potential contrarian value on opponents. The Buckeyes have been inconsistent in March recently, making them difficult to trust as favorites.
Other Ohio Schools
Cincinnati, Xavier, Dayton, and Ohio are occasional tournament participants. Mid-major Ohio schools like Dayton often provide value as underdogs—experienced coaches, passionate fanbases, and they're comfortable in March.
Dayton hosts the First Four every year at UD Arena. When the Flyers make the tournament, they sometimes get to play "home" games in Dayton. If this happens, they're nearly unbeatable in that environment.
Betting Strategy Tips
Early Lines Move Fast
Opening lines on Sunday night move significantly by Thursday's tip-off. If you have a strong opinion, bet early. If you want to wait for information, understand the line may move against you.
Tempo Matters
Slow-tempo teams that grind out possessions tend to cover as underdogs. They keep games close by limiting possessions. Fast-tempo teams are more volatile and often disappoint as favorites.
Experience Wins
Teams with older players, especially seniors who've been to the tournament before, tend to outperform in March. Freshman-heavy teams often struggle with the pressure and intensity.
Conference Tournament Fatigue
Teams that played 4-5 games in their conference tournament (especially mid-majors) may be tired for the first round. Look for rested teams facing exhausted opponents.
Prop Bets & Futures
Team Totals
Individual team totals can be more predictable than game totals. If you know a team struggles against zone defense and they're facing a zone team, fade their team total.
Player Props
Ohio law prohibits college player props, so you won't find individual player markets on Ohio sportsbooks. This is actually helpful—it removes a trap market that's difficult to beat anyway.
Futures
Tournament winner futures are entertainment bets. The favorite wins about 25% of the time, meaning you're usually betting against the odds. If you bet futures, do it for fun with small stakes.
Bankroll Management for March
March Madness is a marathon, not a sprint. 67 games over three weeks requires discipline:
- Stick to the 1% rule: More games doesn't mean bigger bets
- Don't bet every game: You don't need action on all 32 first-round games
- Separate entertainment from edge: Bracket pools and fun parlays are different from serious wagers
- Don't chase: A bad Thursday doesn't mean you need to go crazy on Friday
Bracket pools are entertainment. The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Even a "good" bracket requires significant luck. Don't conflate bracket success with betting skill—they're completely different games.
Best Apps for March Madness
During the tournament, app performance matters. Here's what to look for:
- FanDuel: Best same-game parlays, smooth during high traffic
- DraftKings: Most markets, best live betting interface
- bet365: Early lines, good totals pricing
- BetMGM: Solid promos during March
Have multiple apps ready. Servers can lag during peak betting times (Thursday/Friday of the first round). Don't be stuck with one option that's down.