The NFL Draft is one of the most-bet non-game events on the sports calendar. For Ohio bettors with the Browns and Bengals both in need of talent, it's even more compelling. But draft betting is different from game betting—and if you approach it wrong, you'll get crushed.
Here's how to bet the draft intelligently, which props offer value, and which ones are traps.
How Draft Betting Works
Draft betting is entirely prop-based. There are no spreads or totals. Instead, you're wagering on outcomes like:
- Who will be selected #1 overall?
- Will Player X be drafted in the first round?
- What position will be selected first?
- How many QBs/WRs/etc. will be taken in Round 1?
- Over/under on a player's draft position
- Which team will draft Player X?
Ohio sportsbooks offer extensive draft markets, typically opening 2-3 months before the event and updating lines as mock drafts, pro days, and combine results come in.
Props Worth Betting
✅ #1 Overall Pick
Most years, the #1 pick is known weeks in advance. When there's a heavy favorite (-500 or worse), combine with other legs. When it's uncertain, there's real edge to be found.
✅ Draft Position Over/Under
These have sharper lines than most draft props. Look for players whose mock draft range differs from the betting line—local reporters often have better intel than national oddsmakers.
✅ First Position Selected
Will the first WR go before the first RB? Will a QB go #1? These binary props are easier to handicap than specific player outcomes.
✅ Round 1 Total Props
Over/under on total QBs, WRs, or defensive players in Round 1. These aggregate props smooth out individual unpredictability.
Props to Avoid
🚫 Exact Pick Number
"Player X will be selected 7th overall" at +2000. These are lottery tickets with terrible expected value. One trade and you lose.
🚫 Team-Specific Late Round Picks
"Browns select Player Y in Round 3." The variance is too high—teams change plans constantly, and the juice destroys any edge.
🚫 Mega Parlays
Draft night is unpredictable enough with single bets. Parlaying multiple outcomes compounds the variance. One surprise trade busts your ticket.
🚫 Day 3 Anything
Rounds 4-7 are essentially random. Even the best scouts disagree wildly on late-round projections. There's no edge to be found.
Example Draft Props
Here's what typical draft betting looks like:
Sample 2026 Draft Props
Draft props move significantly as news breaks. A QB's private workout, a failed medical, a coach's comment—any of these can swing lines 20+ cents overnight. If you have strong conviction, bet early. If you're following consensus, wait until draft week.
Ohio-Specific Angles
Browns Picks
Cleveland's needs change year to year, but their draft tendencies don't. Andrew Berry has favored trading down when possible and loading up on Day 2 picks. "Browns trade down from first round" has been a reasonable bet in recent years.
Bengals Picks
Cincinnati has prioritized offensive line and defense recently. When oddsmakers post "Which position will the Bengals draft first?", look at their biggest roster holes—the Bengals have been relatively predictable in addressing obvious needs.
Ohio State Players
OSU consistently produces top draft picks. Props on Buckeye players often attract local money, which can skew lines. If you think the market is overreacting to Columbus hype, there may be value on the other side.
Timing Your Bets
Bet Early If:
- You have strong conviction based on your own research
- You're betting against public consensus
- The current line feels mispriced
Bet Late If:
- You're waiting for pro day/combine results
- There are injury concerns to clarify
- You want to follow sharp money movement
Draft lines move more than game lines because new information constantly emerges. A player's stock can swing 10+ spots in a month based on interviews, workouts, and rumor mills.
NFL Draft night averages 10-15 trades. Any prop tied to a specific pick number is vulnerable. "Player X goes Top 10" is safer than "Player X goes to Team Y" because trades change destinations more than they change ranges.
Where to Bet the Draft
All major Ohio sportsbooks offer draft props, but selection varies:
- DraftKings: Deepest selection, most exotic props
- FanDuel: Cleaner interface, competitive lines on main props
- BetMGM: Good for Round 1 totals, fewer late-round options
- Caesars: Decent selection, watch for boosted odds promos
Shop around—draft lines aren't as tight as game lines, so you'll find meaningful differences between books.
The Responsible Play
Draft betting is entertainment. The variance is extremely high, the hold on many props is substantial, and even the best handicappers miss constantly. Treat it like playing poker with friends—set a budget for the night and enjoy the experience.
If you find yourself betting significant money on "which team will draft Player X in Round 4," step back. That's not handicapping—that's gambling on randomness.
Stick to Round 1 props where information is densest, avoid lottery-ticket exact picks, and remember: the draft is a three-day event but you don't need to bet all three days.
More Big Betting Moments
Ohio hosts plenty of events worth your attention.
Read: First Four in Dayton →