Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Super Bowl appearance. Multiple Pro Bowls. Ice in his veins in big moments. By any measure, he's an elite player.
But there's a pattern in his career that Bengals bettors need to know about:
Burrow's Career September ATS
When the season starts, the Bengals struggle to cover. It's been true in every healthy season Burrow has played. And it's not a small sample—it's 16 games of consistent underperformance.
The Month-by-Month Breakdown
Here's how Burrow's ATS record looks across the regular season:
September
October
November
December+
The contrast is stark. September: 31% cover rate. The rest of the season: 62% cover rate. It's a 31-point swing in ATS performance.
Historically, Week 5 is when Burrow's Bengals start covering. The first four weeks are fade territory; after that, the betting narrative shifts completely.
Why Does This Happen?
Several theories explain the September struggles:
Theory 1: Offensive Line Cohesion
Cincinnati's offensive line has been a problem for years. New pieces need time to gel, and early-season protection breakdowns limit what Burrow can do. By October, the timing is better.
Theory 2: Preseason Philosophy
Zac Taylor limits starters' preseason reps. Burrow often plays sparingly (or not at all) in August. That means September is essentially his real preseason—and it shows in the results.
Theory 3: Public Overvaluation
The Bengals are a trendy pick every September. "Burrow is healthy, this is their year." That public love inflates lines, making covers harder even if the team performs reasonably.
Theory 4: Injury History
Burrow has dealt with significant injuries (knee in 2020, appendix in 2022, wrist in 2023). Teams may be cautious early, limiting his workload until he finds his rhythm. Cautious play means tighter games.
Year-by-Year September Results
| Season | Sept Record (SU) | Sept Record (ATS) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0-3 | 1-2 | Rookie season, team rebuilding |
| 2021 | 3-1 | 1-3 | Won games but didn't cover |
| 2022 | 1-2 | 1-2 | Appendix surgery delayed start |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | Calf injury limited mobility |
| 2024 | 1-3 | 1-3 | Coming off wrist surgery |
| Total | 6-12 | 5-11 |
The pattern holds regardless of circumstances. Good September, bad September, healthy, hurt—Burrow's Bengals don't cover in the season's first month.
The AFC North Factor
Interestingly, Burrow's overall record against AFC North opponents is strong: 61.1% ATS against division rivals. But even that gets worse in September. Early-season divisional games are particularly dangerous.
The Ravens and Steelers both run physical, defensive-minded schemes that travel well early in the season. Before Cincinnati's offense finds its rhythm, those games tend to stay close.
How to Bet This
The September Fade
When the Bengals are favored in September, consider fading them against the spread. You're not betting against Burrow's talent—you're betting on a consistent historical pattern of underperformance against expectations.
The October Buy-Low
If Cincinnati starts 1-3 or 2-2 and public sentiment turns negative, that's your window. Weeks 5-8 have historically been strong cover territory. Buy low on the Bengals when the September narrative is "they're done."
The Under Angle
September unders have been profitable for Bengals games. The offense isn't clicking, games stay lower-scoring, and the total often reflects the public's optimism about Burrow more than early-season reality.
Mark your calendar: fade Bengals spreads Weeks 1-4, especially as favorites. Look to buy back in starting Week 5 when public sentiment is lowest and the team starts clicking.
The Caveat
Trends persist until they don't. Every September, there's a chance Burrow comes out firing and the pattern breaks. But five years of consistent data is hard to ignore.
The smart approach: use this as one factor in your analysis, not the only factor. If the line looks right and September history supports the fade, lean into it. If other factors suggest otherwise, trust your broader analysis.
Burrow is elite. But elite players have patterns. And this pattern says: bet against the hype in September, bet with the talent in October and beyond.
More AFC North Intel
The Bengals aren't the only team with exploitable patterns.
Read: The Stefanski Paradox →