🏆 Big Moments

Memorial Tournament Betting Guide: Muirfield Village Course Breakdown

📅 December 2025 ⏱️ 8 min read 🏆 Big Moments

The Memorial Tournament is Ohio's biggest annual golf event—and one of the PGA Tour's premier signature events. Held every June at Jack Nicklaus's Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, it draws an elite field and offers Ohio bettors a rare chance to have local knowledge edge.

Here's everything you need to know to bet the Memorial intelligently.

Muirfield Village by the Numbers

7,533
Yards (Par 72)
Bent
Grass Type
-13
Avg. Winning Score
1976
First Tournament

Muirfield Village is a Nicklaus design that rewards precision over power. The course has been modified multiple times, most recently in 2020, making it longer and more demanding. Water comes into play on 11 holes, and the bentgrass greens are among the most challenging on Tour.

Key Course Traits

🎯 Ball Striking Premium

Muirfield Village rewards accuracy off the tee and precision approach shots. Bombers who spray it will struggle; iron players who control trajectory thrive. Look for players who rank highly in Strokes Gained: Approach.

🌊 Water Management

With water on 11 holes, course management is critical. Aggressive players who attack pins near hazards get burned. Look for patient, strategic players who avoid big numbers.

⛳ Putting on Bentgrass

The greens are slick, undulating, and punish poor speed control. Players who excel on bentgrass (common at Northern courses) have an advantage over those who play mostly bermuda.

🌧️ Weather Variability

Ohio weather in early June is unpredictable. Morning rounds can be cool and calm; afternoon rounds can see wind, rain, or heat. Players who handle changing conditions well are valuable.

Historical Winners and Trends

Year Winner Score Notable
2024 Scottie Scheffler -12 World #1, dominant wire-to-wire
2023 Viktor Hovland -14 Sunday charge, 7-shot comeback
2022 Billy Horschel -13 Steady, no fireworks
2021 Patrick Cantlay -13 Playoff win, ice-cold putting
2020 Jon Rahm -9 Shortened by weather

Pattern: Recent winners have been elite ball-strikers with strong approach play. Pure bombers (Bryson, Cameron Young types) haven't broken through. Look for well-rounded games over one-dimensional power.

Betting Angles That Work

1. Target Course History

Muirfield Village rewards familiarity. Players who've performed well here tend to repeat. Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, and Hideki Matsuyama have all posted multiple top-10s. Course form often matters more than recent form at the Memorial.

2. Strokes Gained: Approach

This is the key stat. Sort the field by SG:Approach over the past 24 rounds, and you'll find your contenders. The premium on iron play at Muirfield is higher than almost any other Tour stop.

3. Fade the Big Hitters

Long hitters without accuracy have historically struggled here. If someone's game is built on overpowering courses with distance, they're often a fade at Muirfield.

4. Weather Splits

If weather is forecasted, check which players have early vs. late tee times. Ohio's afternoon thunderstorms can make late draws significantly harder. This creates value on early-wave players.

💡 Ohio Local Edge

Weather forecasts for Dublin, Ohio are more reliable 3-5 days out than most locations. Ohio bettors can monitor local forecasts and adjust bets as wave assignments are released. National bettors often miss this nuance.

Bet Types to Consider

Outright Winner

The Memorial usually draws 15-20 players with a realistic chance to win. At signature events, favorites hit at a higher rate than regular events. Don't be afraid to pay up for Scheffler or Rahm if you think they're dialed in.

Top 10 / Top 20 Finishes

These markets offer better expected value for most bettors. Look for consistent players with course history but outside the win odds.

Matchups

Head-to-head and group matchups reduce variance. Target matchups where one player's profile fits Muirfield significantly better than the other.

First Round Leader

Fast starters with early tee times in good weather are the targets. This is a high-variance bet but offers big payouts when you nail the weather/tee time angle.

Sample Betting Approach

Here's how to structure a Memorial betting portfolio:

This diversifies your exposure while keeping meaningful skin in the game on your highest-conviction plays.

⚠️ Avoid This Trap

Don't bet Ohio State golfers just because it's Ohio. The connection is fun, but unless they have legitimate credentials at this level, it's homer money. Let their record at Muirfield guide you, not their alma mater.

When to Bet

Outright winner odds are typically best Tuesday-Wednesday before the tournament, before sharp money moves the market. First-round leader and matchup odds are often best Thursday morning once tee times and weather are finalized.

Live betting during the tournament can offer value when a contender has a bad hole but is still in position—overreaction creates opportunity.

More Ohio Betting Events

The Memorial is just one of many betting opportunities in Ohio.

Read: First Four Dayton →