Futures betting—wagering on championship outcomes before the season or during it—ties up your money for months. But with Ohio teams in the mix across every major sport, it's tempting. Here's how to approach futures smartly.
The Futures Reality Check
Before diving into specific teams, understand what you're signing up for:
- Your money is locked: Funds are tied up until the season ends
- House edge is massive: Futures carry 15-25% vig (compared to ~5% on game spreads)
- Favorites rarely pay: The team that wins is often heavily juiced by season's end
- Injuries happen: One ACL tear can crater your championship bet
Futures are entertainment, not investment. Treat them accordingly.
Add up implied probabilities of all teams' championship odds. It typically equals 125-140%—meaning the house takes 25-40% off the top. This is much worse than standard -110 bets with ~4.5% vig.
Ohio Teams Breakdown
🏈 Cincinnati Bengals (Super Bowl)
The Bengals reached Super Bowl LVI and have the infrastructure for another run. Joe Burrow's health is everything—when healthy, they're a legitimate contender. Best time to buy is after a Burrow injury scare that doesn't materialize long-term, when odds spike.
🏈 Cleveland Browns (Super Bowl)
The Browns have championship-caliber defense but QB uncertainty limits ceiling. Longshot futures only make sense if you believe Deshaun Watson returns to form or a backup surprises. Better to avoid or wait for in-season value.
🏀 Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA Championship)
The Cavs' young core (Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, Allen) has championship potential. Best value is preseason before they prove themselves—once they're winning, odds shorten. Also watch for post-trade deadline adjustments.
⚾ Cleveland Guardians (World Series)
The Guardians consistently outperform payroll expectations. Their developmental system and pitching culture create value. Best time to buy is spring training before the market recognizes their competitiveness. Fade after hot starts when odds shorten too much.
🏈 Ohio State (CFP National Championship)
Ohio State is a perennial contender but often falls short. The expanded CFP creates more paths to the championship. Best value is after early-season losses when odds spike—OSU often recovers. Note: Ohio bans individual college player props but allows team futures.
When to Buy Futures
| Timing | Advantage | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | Best prices on eventual winners | Injuries, roster changes unknown |
| After early losses | Overreaction creates value | Team may actually be bad |
| Post-trade deadline | Roster clarity | Good teams already expensive |
| Playoffs begin | Maximum information | Worst prices, little value |
The best futures bets are made when the market undervalues a team—typically preseason or after adversity.
Hedging and Cashing Out
Middle of Season
If your futures bet is alive and the team's odds have shortened significantly, some sportsbooks offer cash-out options. Compare the cash-out value to what you'd receive by hedging with opposing bets.
Championship Game
If your team reaches the finals, you can hedge to guarantee profit regardless of outcome. The math:
- Calculate your potential payout if the original bet wins
- Bet enough on the opponent to guarantee profit either way
- Accept smaller guaranteed profit vs. potential larger win
Whether to hedge is personal. Some prefer guaranteed money; others ride the original bet.
Futures on your favorite team create emotional hedging dilemmas. If the Bengals reach the Super Bowl on your +2000 ticket, can you bet against them? Some fans can't—and that's okay. Just understand it's an emotional choice, not a mathematical one.
Division and Conference Futures
Lower-profile futures often offer better value:
- Division winners: Smaller pools, more predictable
- Conference champions: Easier than championship, still long odds
- Win totals: Over/under on regular season wins—more skill-based
- Player awards: MVP, Cy Young, etc.—require specific outcomes
AFC North division winner futures, for example, involve only four teams. Easier to analyze than the full NFL field.
Bankroll Allocation
Given the high vig and locked funds, limit futures exposure:
- No more than 5% of bankroll in total futures bets
- Individual futures should be small (0.5-1% of bankroll)
- Spread across multiple teams/sports if betting futures
- Consider futures entertainment money, not edge betting
The 1% rule applies differently to futures. Since they're long-term and high-vig, be even more conservative.
The Ohio Fan Discount
Betting futures on your favorite team has one underappreciated benefit: entertainment value. If you have $50 on the Bengals at +2000 to win the Super Bowl, every playoff game matters more. Every regular season win builds the dream.
Just acknowledge what you're buying: months of rooting interest, not expected value. If that's worth the price, it's a valid entertainment purchase.