The NBA Finals are the pinnacle of basketball betting. Series pricing, game-by-game adjustments, and prop markets create opportunities throughout the championship round. Here's how Ohio bettors should approach it.
Series Pricing Explained
NBA Finals series pricing offers several bet types beyond simply picking the winner:
Series Moneyline
The most straightforward bet—pick which team wins the championship. Prices adjust dramatically based on game results.
Series Spread
A handicap on the series result. Example: Team A -1.5 games means they must win by at least 2 games (4-2 or better). This offers value on heavy favorites.
Series Exact Score
Predict the exact series result (4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3). Higher payouts but harder to hit. The 4-2 result is historically most common.
Series Total Games
Over/under on how many games the series goes. Usually set at 5.5 or 6 games.
Series prices move dramatically after each game. A team down 2-0 might be +400 to win the series—value if you believe they can rally. Ohio bettors with the 2016 Cavs know anything is possible.
Game-by-Game Strategy
| Game | Historical Pattern | Betting Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Home teams 65% SU | Road team often gets inflated line |
| Game 2 | Adjustments start | Look for overreactions to Game 1 |
| Game 3 | Series shifts venues | Road favorites historically struggle |
| Game 4 | Desperate team motivation | Team facing elimination often covers |
| Games 5-7 | High variance | Totals tighten, defenses dominate |
Finals Totals Trends
NBA Finals totals tend to trend lower as series progress:
- Games 1-2: Teams still finding rhythm, offense flows
- Games 3-4: Defensive adjustments kick in
- Games 5-7: Maximum defensive intensity, grinding games
The under has been profitable in Games 5+ historically, as teams tighten up and play desperate defense.
The Cavs Example: 2016
The 2016 Cavs came back from 3-1 down to beat the 73-win Warriors. After Game 4, Cleveland was +700 to win the series. Bettors who recognized the matchup adjustments (Tyronn Lue's lineup changes, LeBron's escalation) found incredible value.
Key betting lessons from 2016:
- Series prices after 3-1 deficits are often inefficient
- Superstar performance (LeBron's Game 5-7 run) can flip any series
- Coaching adjustments matter more in Finals than regular season
- Betting against history (no team had come back from 3-1 in Finals) paid off
Player Props in the Finals
Finals player props offer value because:
- Minutes increase for star players (35+ MPG common)
- Usage rates spike for top options
- Role players can disappear against elite defenses
- Fatigue accumulates—late-series unders on scoring
Look for star player overs early in series, role player unders as series progress.
Finals MVP Betting
Finals MVP odds are available throughout the series. Key patterns:
- Best player on winning team wins ~90% of the time
- Narrative matters—voters love dominant performances
- Value exists on secondary stars early (if they pop off)
- Prices move fast—a big Game 1 shifts the market
If you have a strong series winner prediction, bet the MVP before the series starts for better prices.
Ohio Angle: If the Cavs Make It
When Cleveland makes the Finals (they have recent history), expect:
- Inflated Cleveland lines: Ohio money floods in
- Potential contrarian value: On the opponent if line moves too far
- Local promos: Ohio sportsbooks will offer Cavs-specific boosts
- Watch party atmospheres: But bet with your head, not heart
Best Apps for Finals Betting
| App | Series Markets | Game Props | Finals Promos |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Excellent | Deep | Strong |
| DraftKings | Excellent | Deep | Strong |
| BetMGM | Good | Good | Good |
| bet365 | Excellent | Deep | Average |
For NBA Finals specifically, FanDuel and DraftKings typically have the best combination of markets, props, and promotional offers.