Futures bets are wagers on events that won't be decided for weeks, months, or even a full season. Will the Bengals win the Super Bowl? Will Donovan Mitchell win MVP? Will the Guardians win more than 82.5 games?
These bets offer big potential payouts and season-long engagement. They also tie up your money and carry unique risks. Here's everything Ohio bettors need to know about playing the futures market.
TYPES OF FUTURES BETS
Championship
Super Bowl, World Series, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, CFP winner
Conference/Division
AFC/NFC winner, division titles, conference championships
Awards
MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year
Win Totals
Over/under on team's regular season wins
Make Playoffs
Yes/No on whether team makes postseason
Player Season Stats
Over/under on passing yards, home runs, etc.
HOW FUTURES ODDS WORK
Futures are displayed as moneyline odds showing potential profit on a winning bet:
Example: Super Bowl Odds
The shorter the odds, the more likely the book thinks that team is to win. But here's the catch: if you add up the implied probabilities of all teams, it'll total far more than 100%. That difference is the vig—the book's built-in profit margin.
💡 The Futures Vig Is Huge
On a typical Super Bowl futures market, the combined implied probability might be 140-150%. That means 40-50% built-in edge for the house. Compare that to a standard spread bet at 4.55% vig. Futures are expensive bets.
THE PROS AND CONS
✓ Why Bet Futures
- Big potential payouts on small stakes
- Season-long engagement and rooting interest
- Early lines can offer value before season starts
- Entertainment value—makes every game matter
- Cash out options on some books if team is doing well
✗ The Downsides
- Money is locked up for months
- Extremely high vig compared to game bets
- Injuries can destroy your bet instantly
- Hard to calculate true value/edge
- One outcome among 30+ teams—low hit rate
FUTURES STRATEGY: FINDING VALUE
Smart Futures Betting Approach
Bet Early for Best Odds
The best value is typically before the season starts. Once games are played, odds adjust quickly. A team that wins their first 3 games sees their odds cut in half.
Target Mid-Tier Teams, Not Favorites
The vig is baked into favorites. Look for teams in the +1000 to +3000 range that have paths to winning—not the +200 favorites everyone is betting.
Consider Win Totals Over Championships
Win totals are more predictable than "will they win it all." The vig is lower, outcomes are more within your control to analyze, and there's less randomness.
Shop Lines Aggressively
Futures odds vary wildly between books. One might have a team at +1800 while another has +2500. Always check multiple sportsbooks.
Size Bets Appropriately
Most futures lose. Keep individual futures bets small—0.5% of bankroll or less. The big payouts let you be profitable even with a low hit rate.
WIN TOTALS: THE SMARTER FUTURE
If you want to bet futures, win totals often offer better value than championship bets. Here's why:
Win totals are essentially over/under bets on a team's season. They settle based on regular season performance alone—no playoff randomness. And with only two outcomes (over or under), the vig is much more reasonable.
What to Look For in Win Totals
- Schedule strength - A weak schedule can add 1-2 wins
- Offseason changes - New QB, coach, or key additions/losses
- Injury history - Teams that lost players last year might see bounce-back
- Close game luck - Teams with many close wins often regress
OHIO TEAMS: FUTURES SNAPSHOT
Current Ohio Team Futures (Example)
Cincinnati Bengals
NFL • AFC NorthCleveland Browns
NFL • AFC NorthCleveland Cavaliers
NBA • Eastern ConferenceCleveland Guardians
MLB • AL CentralCincinnati Reds
MLB • NL CentralOhio State Buckeyes
CFB • Big TenNote: These are example odds for illustration. Check current odds at your preferred sportsbook.
HEDGING YOUR FUTURES
If your futures bet is looking good deep into the season, you have options:
1. Let It Ride
You placed the bet believing they could win. If your analysis was right, trust it through to the end. This maximizes potential profit but risks walking away with nothing.
2. Cash Out
Many sportsbooks offer cash out on futures. You'll get less than the full potential payout, but you lock in guaranteed profit. The book takes a cut, but you eliminate risk.
3. Hedge with Opposing Bets
In the championship game, bet the other team. If your team wins, the futures bet pays. If they lose, the hedge covers your original stake (and maybe more).
🎯 The Hedging Math
If you bet $100 on Bengals at +1400 (potential $1,500) and they make the Super Bowl, you could hedge by betting ~$700 on the opponent. That guarantees ~$800 profit regardless of outcome. Not as exciting as $1,500, but risk-free profit is still profit.
COMMON FUTURES MISTAKES
- Betting too much on one team - Most futures lose. Never put more than 1% of bankroll on a single future.
- Ignoring the vig - Those +400 odds look good until you realize they should be +550 based on true probability.
- Betting favorites - The public pounds favorites, making their odds even worse value.
- Not shopping lines - Futures odds vary dramatically. Missing a better line costs real money.
- Forgetting opportunity cost - That $500 locked up for 6 months could've been working on weekly bets.
✅ The Bottom Line on Futures
Futures are entertainment products with big vig. They're fun for small stakes and can offer value if you bet early on mid-tier teams. Win totals are generally better value than championship bets. Never overextend on futures—most will lose.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Futures have high vig—40%+ on championships vs. 5% on spreads
- Bet early—best odds are available before the season
- Win totals offer better value than championship bets
- Shop lines—odds vary significantly between books
- Keep stakes small—0.5% of bankroll or less per future
- Hedging is an option if your bet looks good late in the season
🏆 Ready to Bet Futures?
Compare Ohio sportsbooks for the best futures odds and cash out options on your favorite teams. View our sportsbook comparison.