March Madness Betting Guide Ohio 2025

Why March Madness is Different

The NCAA Tournament is chaos — and that's what makes it great for betting. 68 teams, single elimination, and games all day long for the first two rounds. The variance is massive, and upsets happen constantly.

Unlike the NFL where lines are sharp, college basketball has softer lines. Oddsmakers can't know all 350+ Division I teams as well as they know 32 NFL franchises. This creates opportunities.

First Round Upset Stats

Knowing historical upset rates helps you pick your spots:

First Round Win Rates by Matchup

1 vs 16

152-2

99% (1 seed)

2 vs 15

144-10

94% (2 seed)

3 vs 14

133-21

86% (3 seed)

4 vs 13

128-26

83% (4 seed)

5 vs 12

102-52

66% (5 seed)

6 vs 11

95-59

62% (6 seed)

7 vs 10

93-61

60% (7 seed)

8 vs 9

78-76

51% (8 seed)

The 12 vs 5 upset is famous for a reason — it happens roughly once per year on average. The 8/9 and 7/10 games are essentially coin flips.

Types of March Madness Bets

📊 Point Spreads

The most common tournament bet. Early-round spreads can be massive (20+ points for 1 vs 16), but they compress as the tournament progresses. Sweet 16 and beyond, spreads are usually single digits.

💰 Moneylines

Picking the winner straight up. Underdog moneylines offer big payouts. A 12-seed beating a 5-seed might pay +350 or better. Good for upset hunting.

⬆️ Totals

Combined score of both teams. Tournament games can be unpredictable — teams play tight in elimination games. Unders have historically been profitable in high-pressure matchups.

🏆 Futures

Bet on tournament outcomes before it starts — national champion, Final Four teams, region winners. Futures offer big payouts but require teams to win multiple games.

🏀 Ohio Teams in March

When Ohio State, Cincinnati, Dayton, or Xavier make the tournament, remember: Ohio law prohibits player props on in-state college teams. You can bet spreads, moneylines, and totals — just not individual player stats. Learn more →

March Madness Betting Strategy

Tournament Betting Tips

Hunt 12 vs 5 Upsets

This matchup produces upsets at a high rate. Look for 12-seeds with experienced guards and tournament history. One upset per tournament is the baseline.

Fade Public Favorites

Casual bettors love blue blood programs. When everyone hammers Duke or Kentucky, the line inflates. Look for value on the other side.

Lean Under in Close Matchups

Elimination games are stressful. Teams play tight defense, offenses get nervous. Close tournament games historically trend under.

Don't Chase First Round Losses

You'll lose some first round bets. With 32 games in two days, it happens. Don't chase — stick to your bankroll plan.

Live Bet Halftime Adjustments

Good coaches make halftime adjustments. If a favorite is down at half, consider live betting them. Experienced programs don't panic.

💡 The "First Four" Edge

First Four games (the play-in round) often have softer lines. These teams get less attention from oddsmakers. If you do your homework on the First Four, you can find value others miss.

Best Apps for March Madness

DraftKings: Best for college basketball props and same-game parlays.

FanDuel: Clean interface for managing multiple tournament bets.

Caesars: Aggressive March Madness promos and boosts.

BetMGM: Good for tournament futures and region winners.

Get Ready for March

See Best Ohio Apps →

March Madness Betting Guide