The Columbus Blue Jackets are in a rebuild. Young players are developing, the roster is in flux, and playoff expectations are modest. But for bettors, rebuilding teams offer unique opportunities—if you know where to look.
Understanding the Rebuild Cycle
NHL teams go through predictable phases. Each presents different betting dynamics:
📉 Phase 1: Tear Down
Veterans traded, young players given roles they're not ready for, losses pile up. Team motivation fluctuates. Late-season tanking for draft position becomes a factor.
🌱 Phase 2: Development
Young core establishes itself. Inconsistency is the norm—brilliant one night, terrible the next. The team is better than their record in some games, worse in others.
📈 Phase 3: Emergence
Young stars arrive. The team is no longer a pushover but not yet a contender. They can hang with good teams on good nights. Market often undervalues them.
🏆 Phase 4: Contention
Playoff team. Market pricing catches up. Value harder to find unless you're ahead of adjustments.
The Blue Jackets are currently in Phase 2 with glimpses of Phase 3. They have talent but lack consistency. This is exactly where value can hide.
Why Rebuilding Teams Get Mispriced
- Reputation lag: Markets remember last year's results longer than they should
- Star power bias: Without household names, casual bettors assume teams are worse than they are
- National visibility: Less TV coverage means less public betting, which can create softer lines
- Inconsistency penalty: One blowout loss tanks perception even if the team is competitive overall
The best time to bet on improving teams is before the public recognizes improvement—usually mid-season when young players have adjusted but the team's record is still mediocre. By the time analysts are praising the rebuild, the value is gone.
When Rebuilding Teams Perform
| Situation | Trend | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Home games early season | Good | Enthusiasm, crowd energy |
| vs. divisional rivals | Good | Extra motivation |
| First game after trade | Good | Remaining players play hard |
| Late season (out of playoffs) | Poor | Playing for draft position |
| Long road trips | Poor | Young teams struggle |
| Back-to-backs | Poor | Depth exposed |
Season Win Totals
The most interesting futures bet on rebuilding teams is the season win total. Here's how to approach it:
Evaluating the Over
- Is the team better than last year's record suggests?
- Have they added any impactful pieces in the offseason?
- Are young players primed for breakouts?
- Is the schedule favorable early (when motivation is highest)?
Evaluating the Under
- Are key veterans likely to be traded mid-season?
- Is the team incentivized to tank for draft position?
- Are injuries likely given workload on young players?
- Does the late-season schedule feature tough opponents?
When evaluating CBJ's season wins, consider: goaltending health (Merzlikins is key), development of young forwards, and whether the team stays competitive late or mails it in for draft lottery odds. The answer varies year to year.
Tank Watch Implications
When rebuilding teams fall out of playoff contention, some prioritize draft lottery positioning. This affects betting:
- Lineup changes: Veterans get rest, prospects get auditions
- Goalie rotation: Backups see more action
- Effort levels: Professional pride still exists, but urgency drops
- Trade deadline: Best players may be shipped out mid-March
If Columbus is mathematically eliminated by February, their betting profile changes dramatically. Track their positioning carefully.
Young Player Props
One advantage of following rebuilding teams: you know the young players before the market does. Player props on emerging talent can offer value:
- Points over/under: If you've watched a prospect develop, you may see breakout coming before odds adjust
- Game props: Young players in favorable matchups (against backup goalies, tired opponents)
- Season-long props: Rookie of the Year, team points leader, etc.
Fade Spots for Rebuilding Teams
Not every game is bettable. Avoid these situations:
- Second night of back-to-backs: Young depth isn't there
- Fourth game of a road trip: Travel wears down inexperienced rosters
- Post-trade deadline: If key players were moved, team cohesion suffers
- Games after elimination: Motivation drops, even if players deny it
- Against elite teams on the road: Talent gap is exposed
The Long View: Futures Value
Rebuilding teams can offer lottery-ticket futures at long odds:
- Division winner: Usually +3000 or longer. Pure entertainment.
- Make playoffs: More realistic. If the team is close, late-season odds can be inflated.
- Conference winner/Stanley Cup: Longest shots, but one hot playoff run changes everything (see 2019 Blue Jackets)
The key is betting these early in the season if you believe in the team, not chasing during a hot streak when odds have shortened.
Blue Jackets Betting Approach
Given Columbus's current rebuild status:
✅ Target
- Home games against divisional opponents
- Games where they're +140 or bigger underdogs
- Totals in divisional matchups (typically under)
- Early season before reality sets in
❌ Avoid
- Road back-to-backs
- Late-season games if eliminated
- Games against elite teams away from home
- Heavy favorite spots (they rarely dominate)