BETTING UNITS EXPLAINED: FLAT BETTING VS. VARIABLE SIZING

You've set aside a bankroll. You know the 1% rule. But how do you actually decide how much to bet on each game?

This is where betting units come in. A "unit" is simply a standardized bet size that helps you manage your bankroll consistently. But there's an ongoing debate in the betting community: should you bet the same amount every time (flat betting), or should you vary your bet size based on confidence (variable betting)?

Let's break down both approaches, when each makes sense, and how to implement them.

WHAT IS A BETTING UNIT?

A unit is a fixed percentage of your bankroll that represents your standard bet size. Most recreational bettors use 1-2% of their total bankroll as one unit.

Using units instead of dollar amounts has several advantages:

• Scalability - Your strategy works whether your bankroll is $500 or $50,000
• Tracking - It's easier to compare performance across different bankroll sizes
• Discipline - Units force you to bet proportionally, not emotionally
• Communication - When sharing picks, "+2.5 units" means the same thing to everyone

FLAT BETTING VS. VARIABLE BETTING

Once you've established your unit size, you have two main approaches:

THE CASE FOR FLAT BETTING

For most bettors, flat betting is the smart choice. Here's why:

1. Humans Are Bad at Assessing Confidence

Studies consistently show that people overestimate their ability to identify "lock" plays. That game you're "absolutely certain" about? It has roughly the same win probability as your other picks. Variable betting amplifies this bias by putting more money on your most confident (and often most overconfident) plays.

2. Variance Already Exists

Sports betting has inherent variance. Adding variable bet sizing increases that variance further. Flat betting smooths out your results and gives you a clearer picture of your actual edge (or lack thereof).

3. Easier to Analyze Performance

When you bet 1 unit on everything, calculating your ROI is simple. When you vary sizes, you need weighted averages and more complex tracking. Flat betting makes it obvious whether your picks are actually profitable.

Notice how the same 11-8 record produced opposite results? Variable betting's results depend entirely on which games you sized up—and it's easy to guess wrong.

THE CASE FOR VARIABLE BETTING

Variable betting isn't wrong—it's just harder to execute properly. Here's when it can make sense:

1. You Have a Proven Edge

If you've tracked at least 500 bets and have demonstrated a consistent edge in specific situations, sizing up on those situations makes mathematical sense. The key word is "demonstrated"—not "feel" or "think."

2. You Use a Strict Tier System

Random confidence levels are dangerous. A structured tier system with clear criteria is safer:

3. You Can Stay Disciplined

Variable betting requires brutal honesty with yourself. If you find yourself constantly talking yourself into "2u plays" or "3u plays," you're not being disciplined—you're gambling bigger. Most bettors can't resist the urge to size up on games they "like," which defeats the purpose.

SIMULATION: FLAT VS. VARIABLE

Let's simulate a typical bettor with a 53% win rate (slight edge) over 200 bets:

The same win rate produced opposite results because variable betting amplifies luck—both good and bad. Unless your confidence correlates with actual win probability, you're adding noise, not signal.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

For Ohio bettors getting started:

1. Start with flat betting. Bet 1 unit on every play for at least 6 months and 200+ bets.
2. Track everything. Record not just wins/losses but your confidence level on each bet.
3. Analyze your data. After 200+ bets, see if your "high confidence" plays actually won at a higher rate.
4. Upgrade carefully. If (and only if) the data shows your confidence correlates with results, consider a conservative tier system.

ADJUSTING UNITS OVER TIME

Your unit size shouldn't be static. As your bankroll grows or shrinks, recalculate:

When to Increase Unit Size

• Your bankroll has grown 50%+ from your starting point
• You've demonstrated a winning record over 200+ bets
• You're comfortable with the new risk level

When to Decrease Unit Size

• Your bankroll has dropped 30%+ from peak
• You're experiencing a prolonged losing streak
• You're feeling stressed about bet amounts

Some bettors recalculate units weekly or monthly. Others only adjust when bankroll changes significantly. Find a rhythm that works for you, but never let emotion drive the decision.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. A unit = a fixed percentage of your bankroll (typically 1-2%)
2. Flat betting is best for most bettors—it's simple and protects against overconfidence
3. Variable betting requires proof—not feelings—that your confidence correlates with results
4. Never bet more than 3 units on any single play
5. Recalculate unit size as your bankroll changes significantly